**In a landscape often shrouded in opacity, where conventional methods of gauging public sentiment are rendered ineffective, the emergence of a groundbreaking research institute has offered an unprecedented window into the minds of Iranians. Gamaan Iran, or the Group for Analyzing and Measuring Attitudes in Iran, stands as a beacon of innovative methodology, dedicated to extracting the real opinions of Iranians on sensitive topics that are otherwise impossible to measure.** Their work provides invaluable insights into a society undergoing profound shifts, challenging long-held assumptions and revealing a populace far more diverse in its views than often perceived. The conventional wisdom surrounding public opinion in Iran has long been dictated by state-controlled narratives or anecdotal evidence. However, the inherent risks associated with expressing dissent or non-conformist views in a restrictive environment have created a significant "skewing effect of fear," making traditional face-to-face or phone surveys unreliable. It is precisely this void that Gamaan Iran has stepped in to fill, pioneering online methodologies that prioritize anonymity and accuracy, thereby giving voice to the silent majority and painting a more truthful picture of the nation's collective consciousness. --- ## Table of Contents * [The Challenge of Polling in Iran: Beyond Conventional Methods](#the-challenge-of-polling-in-iran-beyond-conventional-methods) * [Gamaan's Innovative Approach: Bridging the Information Gap](#gamaans-innovative-approach-bridging-the-information-gap) * [Ensuring Anonymity and Accuracy](#ensuring-anonymity-and-accuracy) * [Reaching a Broad and Representative Audience](#reaching-a-broad-and-representative-audience) * [Key Findings: Unpacking Iran's Societal Shifts](#key-findings-unpacking-irans-societal-shifts) * [The Secularization of Iran](#the-secularization-of-iran) * [Political Aspirations: A Call for Democracy](#political-aspirations-a-call-for-democracy) * [Methodology in Detail: The Science Behind Gamaan Iran's Surveys](#methodology-in-detail-the-science-behind-gamaan-irans-surveys) * [Impact and Recognition: Gamaan in the Media](#impact-and-recognition-gamaan-in-the-media) * [Acknowledging Collaborations and Contributions](#acknowledging-collaborations-and-contributions) * [Looking Ahead: The Future of Public Opinion Research in Iran](#looking-ahead-the-future-of-public-opinion-research-in-iran) --- ## The Challenge of Polling in Iran: Beyond Conventional Methods Understanding public sentiment in Iran is a complex endeavor, fraught with unique challenges. The political and social climate often discourages open expression, especially on sensitive topics. This creates an environment where traditional survey methods, such as face-to-face interviews or telephone polls, are inherently biased. Respondents might fear repercussions, leading them to provide answers they believe are "safe" or socially acceptable, rather than their true opinions. This phenomenon, aptly described as "the skewing effect of fear," makes it nearly impossible to gauge genuine public opinion using conventional means. Researchers have long grappled with this problem, seeking ways to penetrate the veil of self-censorship. The need for a method that could genuinely extract Iranians' real opinions about sensitive topics became paramount. This is where the innovative spirit of Gamaan Iran truly shines. Their work is a testament to how two researchers got to the heart of a polling problem, devising a system that circumvents the limitations of traditional methods and offers a more accurate reflection of Iranian society. ## Gamaan's Innovative Approach: Bridging the Information Gap Gamaan aims to extract Iranians' real opinions about sensitive topics, which cannot be measured by using conventional survey methods in the Iranian context. To achieve this, Gamaan conducts public opinion research on sensitive topics within Iranian society, using innovative online methodologies to ensure anonymity and accuracy. This approach is not merely a technological workaround; it is a fundamental shift in how public opinion is understood and measured in a closed society. ### Ensuring Anonymity and Accuracy The core of Gamaan's success lies in its meticulous attention to anonymity. Recognizing that fear is the primary barrier to honest responses, their online surveys are designed to protect the identity of respondents at every turn. This commitment to anonymity is what allows individuals to express their true beliefs without fear of reprisal, leading to more accurate and reliable data. The rationale for Gamaan’s innovative approach, spreading surveys on a broad scale while maintaining strict privacy, is what sets them apart. ### Reaching a Broad and Representative Audience Gamaan's surveys are not limited to a small, easily accessible group. Instead, they utilize diverse social media, VPN tools, and satellite television channels to disseminate their questionnaires widely. This multi-platform strategy is crucial for reaching a broad and diverse segment of the Iranian population. For instance, acknowledgments show Gamaan is grateful to the Psiphon team for their voluntary assistance in disseminating surveys, and also to television channels like Iran International and Voice of America Persian. This extensive reach helps ensure that the "sample" used in their reports is as representative as possible of the target population. The target population consisted of literate Iranian residents above 19 years old (who were capable of using the internet and reading the survey questions). As reported by the 2016 national population and housing census, around 47 million Iranians are literate and above 19 years old, which accounts for 85% of the adult population of Iran. This broad base ensures the findings reflect the views of a significant majority of the adult Iranian population. ## Key Findings: Unpacking Iran's Societal Shifts The surveys conducted by Gamaan Iran have yielded some truly groundbreaking and often surprising results, challenging prevailing narratives about Iranian society. These findings have gone viral in Iran, showing how secular the country has really become, and revealing deep-seated dissatisfaction with the current political system. ### The Secularization of Iran One of the most striking revelations from Gamaan's research pertains to Iranians' attitudes toward religion. A survey titled “Iranians’ Attitudes Toward Religion” was conducted from June 6 to 21, and its findings were profound. While most Iranians, 78%, believe in God, the survey uncovered a significant decline in adherence to traditional religious practices and beliefs. For instance, only 37% believe in life after death, and a mere 30% believe in heaven and hell. These statistics paint a picture of a society where personal faith in a higher power may persist, but institutional religion and its specific tenets hold less sway for a substantial portion of the population. This data is crucial for understanding the evolving social fabric of Iran, indicating a clear trend towards secularization that is often underestimated or ignored by official sources. ### Political Aspirations: A Call for Democracy Beyond religious attitudes, Gamaan's surveys have also delved deep into political sentiment, particularly concerning the Islamic Republic. Iran's protests, for example, were accompanied by an opinion survey involving 158,000 people in Iran, which showed that more than 80 percent of respondents reject the Islamic Republic and prefer a democratic government. This overwhelming rejection of the current political system underscores a widespread desire for fundamental change. Another significant political survey was conducted between May 27 and June 3 on an upcoming vote, with over 20 thousand respondents participating. The final sample used in this report consisted of 16,850 Iranians living inside Iran. Gamaan also published a summary of their survey on the 2020 parliamentary elections in Iran, which was conducted between January 30th and February 5th, with more than 43,000 respondents. These surveys consistently reveal a strong inclination towards democratic governance and a desire for greater political freedoms among the Iranian populace. Such data is vital for policymakers and analysts seeking to understand the true political landscape of Iran. ## Methodology in Detail: The Science Behind Gamaan Iran's Surveys The rigor of Gamaan's methodology is central to its credibility. The institute, led by researchers like Ammar Maleki, Assistant Professor of Comparative Politics at Tilburg University, employs a sophisticated approach to ensure the reliability of its findings. We study Iranians’ attitudes towards different social and political topics. Gamaan conducts online surveys to extract the (real) opinions of Iranians about sensitive topics. These surveys—conducted in June 2020, December 2022, and July 2023, among others—utilized diverse social media, VPN tools, and satellite television channels for dissemination. The reliance on VPNs is particularly critical, as it allows respondents to bypass internet censorship and access the surveys securely and anonymously. The target population for these studies consists of literate Iranian residents above 19 years old who are capable of using the internet and reading the survey questions. This demographic represents approximately 85% of the adult population of Iran, making the findings broadly applicable. The study’s findings reflect the views of literate Iranian residents aged above 19, who comprise 85% of the Iranian adult population. The term “sample” in Gamaan's reports refers exclusively to the respondents who completed the survey, such as the 16,850 Iranians living inside Iran in one study, or the more than 43,000 respondents in the 2020 parliamentary elections survey. ## Impact and Recognition: Gamaan in the Media The groundbreaking nature of Gamaan's work has not gone unnoticed. Their findings have frequently been cited by international media outlets and academic institutions, highlighting their authority and trustworthiness in providing reliable data from Iran. Gamaan in media sections showcase various media publications in Persian and other languages that have cited their work. This widespread recognition underscores the significance of their research in informing global understanding of Iranian society. However, it's also important to note the inherent challenges in verifying such data independently within Iran. As Iran International reported, they cannot independently verify the accuracy of the survey since polling with traditional methods is not possible within Iran. This statement, rather than undermining Gamaan's work, actually reinforces the necessity and unique value of their innovative online methodologies. It highlights that Gamaan is filling a critical data void that no other method can currently address. ## Acknowledging Collaborations and Contributions The success of Gamaan Iran is not solely the result of its core team's efforts. The institute openly acknowledges the crucial support it receives from various partners and volunteers. Gamaan is grateful to the Psiphon team for their voluntary assistance in disseminating this survey, which is vital for reaching a wide audience in Iran where internet access is often restricted. Furthermore, they extend their gratitude also to all colleagues and volunteers who assisted them in one way or another, including television channels like Iran International and Voice of America Persian, which play a significant role in broadcasting survey invitations to Iranians. This collaborative spirit not only enhances the reach and impact of their surveys but also reinforces the trustworthiness of their operations, showing a commitment to transparency and community involvement in their research endeavors. ## Looking Ahead: The Future of Public Opinion Research in Iran The work of Gamaan Iran represents a pivotal development in understanding a complex and often misunderstood nation. By providing a platform for Iranians to express their true opinions on sensitive social and political topics, Gamaan has not only unveiled critical insights into the country's evolving landscape but also demonstrated the power of innovative research methodologies in challenging environments. From Iranians’ attitudes toward the 2024 legislative elections to their views on religion and governance, Gamaan continues to be a vital source of information. As Iran continues to navigate its future, the data provided by Gamaan will remain indispensable for analysts, policymakers, and indeed, for Iranians themselves. It offers a counter-narrative to official rhetoric, providing a more nuanced and accurate picture of a society in flux. We extend our gratitude to all who support this vital work, enabling the true voice of Iran to be heard. If you found this article insightful, please consider sharing it to help spread awareness of Gamaan's critical contributions. What are your thoughts on these findings? Share your comments below!
